By the end of February, you’re no longer operating on projections or optimism. You have two full months of actual performance sitting in your POS and P&L. That’s enough information to see patterns — if you’re willing to look at them honestly.

January can be misleading. There’s energy around the new year. Teams are refocused. Guests settle back into their normal habits. Valentine’s Day might give you a short sales bump. Once that’s over, you’re left with the real picture of how the business is performing day to day.

The first couple of months usually point you in a direction. They’re not flukes.

Begin with traffic compared to the check average. If total revenue looks steady, don’t stop there — look at what’s actually driving it.

Is it because you’re serving the same number of guests — or because you’ve raised prices? If guest counts are slipping but average check is climbing, that’s not neutral. It may mean your core customer is visiting less often. That could be value perception, competition, inconsistent service, or menu fatigue. Whatever the cause, it won’t correct itself.

Frequency is fragile. Once habits change, they’re hard to win back.

Next, review your food cost in context. Not just the headline percentage — look at weekly movement. A few tenths of a point higher than last year may not feel urgent. When you see costs inching up week after week, there’s usually a reason. Portions get a little loose. Prep gets heavy “just in case.” More food ends up in the trash on slow nights. Vendors slide in increases that no one pushes back on. None of it feels dramatic on its own, but it adds up.

Take a look at what you’re actually selling. Your best sellers aren’t always your best money-makers. A lot of restaurants lean hard on popular items that don’t carry strong margins. If servers keep steering guests toward those items, your top-line sales may hold steady — but the margin behind them starts to shrink.

Take the same approach with labor. Slower January shifts can make things seem under control. But if your labor percentage is still running high when the dining room isn’t full, that’s worth paying attention to.

It often comes down to scheduling extra coverage to avoid being short-staffed — playing it safe instead of scheduling to actual demand.

It might be a lack of cross-training, which forces managers to staff for specific positions rather than offer flexibility. Productivity may be lower on slower shifts.

Labor inefficiency compounds quickly once volume increases.

Look beyond the percentages and pay attention to how your managers are operating. Are they looking at the numbers every week and adjusting schedules in real time? Or do they wait for the month-end P&L and then react? If you’re only making decisions after the books close, you’re already behind.

Good operators build a routine around review. Prime cost gets checked weekly. Sales are compared to labor by the hour. Menu performance is reviewed regularly. Comps and voids have clear guardrails.

The goal isn’t flawless data. It’s staying close to what’s happening.

Ask yourself a few basic questions:

• Which five items sell the most?
• What do they actually contribute to profit?
• Where are we regularly heavy on labor?
• Which dayparts struggle to pull their weight?
• Are discounts creeping up?

This isn’t about pointing fingers. It’s about understanding what’s really going on.

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Spring will bring more volume. Extra covers can mask inefficiencies for a while, but they don’t fix them. Tight systems turn higher sales into stronger margins. Loose systems turn higher sales into longer shifts, more waste, and rising overtime.

The first 60 days don’t usually come with flashing warning lights. It’s small shifts — a little higher here, a little softer there — that end up shaping the rest of the year.

Q2 doesn’t usually surprise operators. It magnifies what was already in motion.

You can let momentum carry you forward and hope it improves. Or you can take the numbers as they stand right now and make deliberate adjustments.

The data is already there. The only real decision is whether you’re going to use it.

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